Traffic fatalities went up in first nine months of 2021

Last year is looking to be another record year for traffic fatalities, according to the latest National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s data.

NHTSA’s early estimate of traffic fatalities reveals about 31,720 people were killed in a crash during the first nine months of 2021. That is a 12% increase from 2020, when more than 28,000 people died in a crash from January through September.

According to NHTSA, last year’s traffic fatalities in the first nine months is the most since 2006. Additionally, the 12% year-to-year increase is the highest on record.

Perhaps not coincidentally, vehicle miles traveled increased at the same rate. In the first nine months of 2021, Americans drove about 244 billion miles, an increase of 11.7%.

Historically, there is a positive correlation with traffic fatalities and vehicle miles traveled. An exception to that rule occurred in 2020 during the beginning of the pandemic. Traffic deaths increased by 8% in 2020, despite vehicle miles traveled decreasing by more than 13%. Some transportation officials believe that open highways resulting from stay-at-home orders led to an increase in risky driving behavior, including speeding. Consequently, crashes became more severe and fatal.

A quick glance at the historical trend paints an unsettling picture of more traffic fatalities.

The past several quarters experienced a significant increase in traffic deaths as a percentage change. Since 1979, there have been four instances when there were significant numbers of consecutive quarters with increases/declines as compared to the corresponding quarters of the previous years. Only one increase streak occurred from the fourth quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2017. The more than 21% increase in the second quarter last year is the highest quarterly increase on record. The 4% increase during the third quarter last year might have stopped a potential second wave of significant increases.

Of the 10 regions across the nation, in only one was there a decrease in traffic fatalities. Traffic deaths in Region 3 – Delaware, District of Columbia, Kentucky, Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia and West Virginia – fell by 2% in the first nine months last year.

Most regions experienced a double-digit increase in traffic fatalities by percentage change. Region 10 – Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington state – experienced a 20% increase in traffic deaths, the largest increase among the 10 regions.

There is a wider range of changes state by state. With a 36% increase, Idaho leads the pack with largest increase in traffic fatalities as a percentage change. Conversely, traffic deaths in Nebraska fell by 18%, the largest decrease in the nation. Traffic fatalities in Mississippi and Wisconsin remained unchanged.

According to NHTSA, the annual report files for 2020 and 2021 will be available next year, which usually results in the revision of fatality totals and the ensuing fatality rates and percentage changes. LL