Key Bridge collapse partially affects EIA outlook
The Energy Information Administration expects U.S. coal exports to be directly affected by the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge.
Baltimore is the second-largest hub for coal exports (28%) in the country, EIA said in its April short-term energy outlook.
“We expect U.S. coal exports to recover toward the end of the summer or early fall, but there is significant uncertainty based on the timeline for the port reopening and how quickly exporters can adjust to export through alternative ports,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said.
In its previous forecast, EIA was anticipating U.S. coal exports to increase by approximately 1% in 2024. EIA now is expecting a 6% decrease from 2023 in U.S. coal export totals.
| Notable Forecast Changes | 2024 | 2025 |
| Brent spot price (current forecast) (dollars per barrel) | $89 | $87 |
| Previous forecast | $87 | $85 |
| Percentage change | 1.8% | 2.6% |
| Henry Hub spot price (current forecast) (dollars per million British thermal units) | $2.20 | $2.90 |
| Previous forecast | $2.30 | $2.90 |
| Percentage change | -5.2% | -1.7% |
| Global liquid fuels consumption (current forecast) (million barrels per day) | 102.9 | 104.3 |
| Previous forecast | 102.4 | 103.8 |
| Change | 0.5 | 0.4 |
Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report.
The current STEO forecast was released April 9.
The previous STEO forecast was released March 12.
EIA also is forecasting increases in global demands for liquid fuels, U.S. natural gas inventory and U.S. electricity consumption.
In 2024, global demand for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel will reach nearly 103 million barrels per day. This would be an increase of almost 500,000 barrels per day from EIA’s previous expectation.
Diesel prices are forecasted to average $4.01 per gallon in the second quarter of 2024. That average is expected to increase to $4.05 per gallon in the third quarter and to hit $4.19 per gallon by the end of the year.
Natural gas should follow the typical growth cycle in the summer. EIA expects that inventory to be about 10% higher than the average by October 2024. This would set a record high for natural gas storage prior to winter.
EIA also expects the residential sector to see the highest growth in electricity consumption in 2024. Summer is forecasted to be warmer than average, driving increased use of air conditioning and year-over-year growth in electricity consumption, the administration said. LL
Read EIA’s full short-term energy outlook here.
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