Expectations shift in EIA’s June outlook
Global oil expectations in the Energy Information Administration’s June outlook differed from its previous forecast, largely a result of OPEC+ extending production cuts.
EIA is now forecasting the Brent crude oil price to average $79 per barrel in the second half of 2023 and $84 per barrel in 2024. By comparison, EIA forecast a price of $74 per barrel for 2024 in its May outlook.
Additionally, EIA expects the consumption of liquid fuels to set new records in 2023 and 2024.
“The petroleum market remains highly uncertain, so we will continue monitoring developments and tracking supply and demand dynamics,” Joe DeCarolis, EIA administrator, said in a news release. “We expect to see demand for travel to continue to increase, which drives our forecast for record consumption of petroleum products.”
| Overview | ||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Brent crude oil (dollars per barrel) |
70.89 | 100.94 | 79.54 | 83.51 |
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) |
11.25 | 11.89 | 12.61 | 12.77 |
| Natural gas spot price (dollars per million BTU) |
3.91 | 6.42 | 2.66 | 3.42 |
| U.S. liquefied natural gas exports (billion cubic feet per day) |
9.76 | 10.59 | 12.07 | 12.73 |
The consumption of distillate fuel – mostly diesel – is expected to fall into 2024, according to the June outlook. EIA points to the historical relationship between diesel consumption in the U.S. and economic growth as the basis for this expectation.
Downward trends in transportation and manufacturing indicators also contribute to this diesel consumption forecast.
EIA is forecasting diesel consumption in the second half of 2023 to be below the 2015-2019 average before further declining in 2024.
The full EIA short-term energy outlook is available here. LL
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