EIA forecast reduces renewable diesel forecast
Record-high natural gas consumption for electricity generation as well as a decline in renewable diesel production is expected this summer, according to the Energy Information Administration.
In its most recent short-term energy outlook, the EIA also is forecasting crude oil prices and natural gas prices to increase through 2023.
“We still expect significant growth in renewable diesel production, but changes to the Renewable Fuel Standard slightly lower the growth rate in the short term,” Joe DeCarolis, EIA administrator, said in the report. “As coal provides less and less power to the grid, we expect the contributions of natural gas and renewables in particular to increase.”
| Overview | ||||
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | |
| Brent crude oil (dollars per barrel) |
70.89 | 100.94 | 79.34 | 83.51 |
| Gasoline retail price (dollars per gallon) |
3.02 | 3.97 | 3.40 | 3.34 |
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) |
11.25 | 11.89 | 12.56 | 12.85 |
| Natural gas spot price (dollars per million BTU) |
3.91 | 6.42 | 2.62 | 3.29 |
| U.S. LNG exports (billion cubic feet per day) |
9.76 | 10.59 | 12.04 | 13.31 |
Crude oil market
EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil spot price to average $78 per barrel in July. By fourth quarter 2023, EIA expects that price to reach $80 per barrel before averaging $84 per barrel in 2024. According to EIA, that increase is due to an expected decline in global oil inventories over the next five quarters.
Renewable diesel production is expected to reach 161,000 per day in 2023 and 219,000 barrels per day in 2024, according to EIA’s forecast.
The outlook said the national average on-highway diesel price will be $3.88 per gallon by the end of 2023, before increasing to $3.92 by the fourth quarter of next year.
EIA expects new export facilities in Texas and Louisiana to come online in 2024. This will bolster U.S. liquid natural gas exports, which EIA forecasts will average 12 billion cubic feet per day in 2023.
The full EIA short-term energy outlook is available on the administration’s website. LL
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