Is there a truck driver shortage? Economics professor says no

Another blow has been delivered to the American Trucking Associations’ claims that there is a chronic truck driver shortage.

Professors Stephen V. Burks, Arne Kildegaard, Jason W. Miller and Kristen Monaco recently published the study, “When is High Turnover Cheaper? A Simple Model of Cost Tradeoffs in a Long-Distance Truckload Motor Carrier, with Empirical Evidence and Policy Implications.”

One key takeaway from the study is that there is not a driver shortage in the trucking industry.

“We review the evidence for a shortage and find it unconvincing,” the study states. “We also review empirical evidence that long‐distance truckload has had persistently high turnover since the mid‐1980s.”

Burks, who is a professor of economics at the University of Minnesota Morris and worked as a truck driver from 1976-86, explained the study’s findings on Land Line Now and at the Midwest Commercial Vehicle Safety Summit in Kansas City, Mo.

“We find that the numbers of employees move up and down with the cycles and rates exactly as you would expect,” Burks told Land Line Now. “So is there a shortage? Well, when rates go up enough, which means carriers offer more signing bonuses and tweak up their wages, we get more drivers. And when rates go down and carriers stop offering signing bonus and let their wages stagnate as inflation goes up, we get people exiting. It works like any normal blue-collar labor market.”

ATA has claimed a shortage of truck drivers since the mid-1980s despite high turnover rates. According to Burks, ATA’s own reports indicate a 92% driver turnover rate per year for large truckload motor carriers.

“Is there a shortage? Normal fluctuations in the market for freight and the market for drivers say no,” Burks said. “Why then does the industry think there’s one? Well, because in long-distance truckload the nature of competition around costs means that, especially middle- and large-sized carriers, can’t afford to pay enough to get enough drivers to stick through the competitions that they offer them for work.”

The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, which represents small-business truckers, has long refuted claims of a driver shortage.

Mainstream media outlets also have reported that truckers are dealing with low freight rates due to overcapacity.

Burks said the implications of the false driver shortage narrative can lead to dangerous policies, such as the pilot program that allows under-21 drivers to operate in interstate commerce. LL