Employment in trucking up in January, but decline in trucking jobs may be on the horizon

January saw a modest increase in trucking jobs, but current conditions in the industry may point to future job losses.

According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 2,000 trucking jobs were added to the economy in January. A modestly positive start to the year comes after tens of thousands of jobs in trucking were lost in 2023.

David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, pointed out to Land Line that although trucking jobs are down by 32,000 from the peak in July 2022, there has been an increase of nearly 13,000 jobs over the past five months after Yellow Corp. filed for bankruptcy in August, contributing to a monthly loss of nearly 32,000 jobs. However, that does not necessarily indicate better conditions in the foreseeable future.

“The data appears to be telling the story that trucking employment bottomed in August 2023 and has been back on the rise since. However, trucking conditions remain challenging, and this trend would go against expectation that employment levels should continue to moderate given the current spot rate environment,” Spencer said. “Moving forward, I expect further employment declines pending a change in the overall demand environment. That said, carriers may be looking ahead to a potential shift in market conditions and not wanting to miss out on the opportunity when it presents itself, which could lead to a continuation of trucking jobs growth and potentially result in an extension of the ongoing market conditions that are eroding profits.”

Revised numbers show an increase of 3,200 trucking jobs in December (compared to the initially reported gain of 3,300) and a gain of 1,900 jobs in November (compared to the initially reported loss of 1,500).

The first employment report of the year includes revisions to the past five years of data. Based on the newly revised numbers, last year’s trucking job loss was significantly worse than originally reported.

For the year, trucking jobs went down by nearly 34,000 in 2023, far more than the nearly 21,000-job decline reported in January. Conversely, 2022’s job gain was considerably smaller. Initially reported as a nearly 61,000-job increase, employment in trucking increased by only 41,000 jobs in 2022, according to revised numbers.

Accounting for all transportation sector jobs, employment increased by 15,500 jobs.

The transportation sector’s net increase was led by warehousing/storage (5,500), support activities for transportation (3,300) and couriers/messengers (2,800). Only three subsectors experienced a net loss in employment in January: air transportation (minus 1,500), scenic/sightseeing transport (minus 1,400) and rail transportation (minus 400).

Beginning-of-the-year revised numbers tell a different story for the transportation sector. Based on revised numbers, employment in the transportation sector increased by 1,600 in December, a stark difference from the previously reported loss of nearly 23,000 jobs. November’s revised numbers show a decrease of 10,500 jobs, up sharply from the initially reported decrease of 5,000.

For the year, transportation employment decreased by nearly 49,000 jobs in 2023, down from the initially reported 62,700 decrease. For 2022 overall, transportation employment increased by nearly 148,000 jobs, a significant decrease from the previously reported increase of 260,500 jobs.

Month to month, wages decreased in January. Average weekly earnings of all employees in the transportation and warehousing sector decreased by $5.24 to $1,154.44. Compared to January 2023, hourly earnings increased to $30.38 from $28.49. Accounting for only production and nonsupervisory employees, average weekly earnings decreased from $1,080.91 in December to $1,074.13. Hourly earnings increased by $1.83 from January 2023, to $28.72.

Across all industries, 353,000 jobs were added to the economy. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7%. Compared to the previous year, the unemployment rate for transportation and material-moving occupations increased from 5.8% to 5.9%.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index has jumped by 3.4% over the past 12 months. The 0.3% increase in December was broad-based, with the indexes for shelter, gasoline and food being the largest contributors. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3%, up 3.9% over the year. LL