EIA forecasting U.S. crude oil production milestone

August 9, 2023

SJ Munoz


Crude oil production in the United States could reach unseen levels by early next year, says the August Energy Information Administration’s short-term energy outlook.

In its forecast, EIA said it expects production to surpass 12.9 million barrels per day for the first time in late 2023.

By early 2024 that number will exceed 13 million barrels per day.

“We forecast continued growth in domestic oil production, which is bolstered by higher oil prices and higher well productivity in the near term,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said.

EIA expects sustained global demand for petroleum products with Saudi Arabia’s extended voluntary cuts contributing to increase oil prices through 2023.

EIA is also forecasting global liquid fuel production to increase in 2023, but it will be partly offset by a drop in OPEC liquid fuels production.

In addition to the U.S., Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Norway are expected to see the highest growth in oil production, according to EIA.

EIA Overview
2021 2022 2023 2024
Brent crude oil
(dollars per barrel)
70.89 100.94 82.62 86.48
U.S. crude oil production
(million barrels per day)
11.27 11.91 12.76 13.09
Natural gas spot price
(dollars per million BTU)
3.91 6.42 2.58 3.22
U.S. LNG exports
(billion cubic feet per day)
9.76 10.59 11.86 13.31

The Brent crude oil price per barrel increased from $75 per barrel in early July to $86 per barrel on Aug. 4. That price is forecasted to approach $90 per barrel in late 2023 by EIA.

As a result, EIA expects fuel prices to increase from its previous forecast through the end of the year.

In its Aug. 7 weekly diesel report, EIA said the national average diesel price was $4.239 per gallon. By the end of 2023, they are forecasting that price to average $4.30 per gallon.

The full EIA short-term energy outlook is available onlineLL

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