Trucking jobs steady in February

In another sign of the market stabilizing, trucking jobs in February remained virtually unchanged.

According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, only 300 trucking jobs were lost in February. The lack of movement in employment is in line with other indicators suggesting the downcycle may soon be over.

In its January market update, the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association’s Foundation pointed out the Cass Shipment Index believes that the current downcycle is nearing completion due to rising import and intermodal trends as well as a change in the truckload and less-than-truckload modal mix.

Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, suggested a more balanced market this year.

“While lower in January, this marks the sixth consecutive month in which the supply-demand balance has been positive, with decreasing capacity being the primary driver, but lesser volume declines have also contributed,” Vieth said. “Six months of green shoots suggests a more balanced market in 2024, after 17 months in a loose market balance.”

Revised numbers show a decrease of 300 trucking jobs in January (compared to the initially reported gain of 2,400) and an increase of 1,700 jobs in December (compared to the initially reported gain of 3,200).

So far this year, trucking jobs are slightly down by 600. Last year, the trucking sector lost more than 35,000 jobs. At this time last year, nearly 8,000 jobs were eliminated from the economy.

Accounting for all transportation sector jobs, employment increased by nearly 20,000 jobs.

The transportation sector’s net increase was mostly the result of a large increase in the couriers/messengers subsector (17,300), followed by air transportation (3,900) and support activities for transportation (2,600). Only three subsectors experienced a net loss in employment in February: warehousing/storage (minus 6,800), trucking (minus 300) and rail transportation (minus 200).

Revised numbers have completely shifted the transportation employment landscape for recent months. Based on revised numbers, employment in the transportation sector decreased by 28,900 in January, a stark difference from the previously reported gain of 15,500 jobs. December’s revised numbers show a decrease of 18,300 jobs, whereas initially reported numbers indicated an increase of 1,600.

Two months in, transportation jobs are down by more than 9,000. Last year, transportation employment decreased by nearly 69,000 jobs, up from the initially reported 49,000 decrease.

Month to month, wages decreased in February. Average weekly earnings of all employees in the transportation and warehousing sector decreased by less than a dollar to $1,161.66. Compared to February 2023, hourly earnings increased to $30.57 from $28.67. Accounting for only production and nonsupervisory employees, average weekly earnings jumped by more than $10 from $1,088.25 in January to $1,098.38. Hourly earnings increased by more than $2 from January 2023, to $29.29.

Across all industries, 275,000 jobs were added to the economy. The unemployment rate rose by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9%. Compared to the previous year, the unemployment rate for transportation and material-moving occupations increased from 5.3% to 5.7%.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index has jumped by 3.1% over the past 12 months. The 0.3% increase in January was broad-based, with the indexes for shelter, gasoline and food being the largest contributors. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4%, up 3.9% over the year. LL