Traffic fatalities continue to drop as numbers approach pre-pandemic levels
After the pandemic contributed to a spike in traffic fatalities, the number of people killed on the nation’s highways is on pace to go down for a third consecutive year.
According to new data released by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, there were more than 18,700 traffic fatalities in the first half of 2024. Although that number is a lot by any standard, it is a 3% decrease compared to the first six months of 2023.
Traffic fatalities dropped by 3.5% in the first three months of this year and nearly 3% in April through June. The second quarter decrease is the ninth consecutive quarterly drop that began in the second quarter of 2022.
A reduction in traffic fatalities comes despite an increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT), which rose by nearly 1% or 13 billion miles. VMT plummeted quarterly compared to the previous year during the pandemic as stay-at-home orders took cars off the roads. After most quarantine restrictions were lifted in late 2020, VMT spiked before reaching pre-pandemic levels and regaining more equilibrium.
Consequently, the fatality rate, which is the number of traffic fatalities per 100 million VMT also dropped.
In the first half of 2024, the fatality rate dropped from 1.21 in 2023 to 1.17. That marks the lowest fatality rate in the first half of a year since 2019 when the rate was 1.07. The pandemic boosted the fatality rate in 2020 and 2021 but has been steadily decreasing since 2022.
Geographically, traffic fatalities are down in most parts of the country, with seven of 10 regions experiencing a drop in both the total number of deaths and the fatality rate. Region 4 (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee) experienced the lowest drop at 9%. Meanwhile, Region 2 (New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania) had the highest increase at 4%.
Nearly two-thirds of states saw traffic fatalities go down in the second half of this year.
As a percentage change, Rhode Island experienced the largest drop (minus 54%), whereas Maine had the largest increase (71%). Rhode Island also has the lowest fatality rate (0.48). Mississippi holds the highest rate at 1.80.
There has not been a significant number of consecutive quarters with a reduction in traffic fatalities since 2010 when there were 17 straight quarters of declines that began in 2006. There have been only two instances of a significant streak in traffic death increases since at least 1981, both within the last 10 years.
Data from NHTSA highlights how disruptive the pandemic was to transportation and the steady recovery to normalcy. Leading up to the first quarter of 2020, traffic fatalities had dropped in nine of the 11 preceding quarters before going on a seven-quarter streak of increases. With the exception of a few small upticks, the annual fatality rate has been trending downward for decades, reaching 1.11 in 2019. However, the rate jumped to 1.34 in 2020, the highest it has been since 2007 when it hit 1.36. Although last year’s rate of 1.26 is the highest since 2008, it has been going down the road toward pre-pandemic levels.
Data for 2023 and 2024 are preliminary and will be updated later this year. Further revisions will be made when the projections for the first nine months of 2024 are released in late December. LL
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