The driver shortage – the never-ending debate that isn’t a debate
In 2019, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics published a report refuting any claims that there is a driver shortage in the trucking industry. The report concluded that any “tightness” in the labor market could be corrected by increasing truck drivers’ pay.
If this weren’t enough, the Institute of Labor Economics published similar findings in 2023. A year later, the National Academies of Science’s driver pay study not only dismissed claims of a driver shortage but also said the assertion conflicts with the basic economic principles of supply and demand.
And since 2022, the trucking industry has been struggling through a freight recession, which can be attributed to an overcapacity problem. Translation: There are more trucks than needed to meet the current demand for freight.
This all amounts to a mountain’s worth of evidence, to be sure. However, none of it has appeared to deter the American Trucking Associations.
Not only will ATA still look you in the eye and tell you that there’s a driver shortage, but it will do so aggressively.
“Self-serving factless claims that there is no driver shortage undermine the serious work of this committee,” ATA President Chris Spear told the Senate Surface Transportation Committee during a hearing on Tuesday, July 22.
Department of Labor. Institute of Labor Economics. National Academies of Science. Longstanding freight recession.
Factless?
To be fair, many of the large carriers ATA represents probably feel like they’re facing a shortage.
But that’s not because there is a lack of people willing to give the trucking industry a try. About 400,000 CDLs are issued every year.
The only reason those large carriers feel like they’re suffering through a driver shortage is because low wages and poor working conditions cause a lot of drivers to leave. In fact, many large motor carriers have turnover rates of 90% or higher.
“If you have a 90% turnover ratio, then there is something wrong in the industry,” Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien told the committee. “When you look at unionized carriers who have 10 or 15% turnover rates, that’s significant, because that means people are happy with their wages and benefits. When you have a race to the bottom, people are leaving their jobs and leaving the industry.”
But no matter how many facts are brought to light, ATA must continue to perpetuate the driver shortage myth. That’s because a large number of their initiatives are built around this narrative.
Lawmaker: Why do you want to lower the interstate truck driver age to 18? Wouldn’t that be a safety risk?
ATA: Because we have a driver shortage.
Lawmaker: Why do you want to increase the size and weight of trucks? Wouldn’t that negatively affect our roads and bridges while also being a safety issue?
ATA: Because we have a driver shortage.
Lawmaker: Why are you supportive of driverless trucks? Wouldn’t that put people out of work and potentially create a number of safety and cybersecurity concerns?
ATA: Because we have a driver shortage.
So, the facts get pushed aside. If ATA wants these provisions included in the next highway bill, it’s going to have to continue leading the “driver shortage” hype train.
But that’s why the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association, the International Brotherhood of Teamsters and other organizations must continue to make sure the facts get to Congress before it passes unnecessary and unsafe initiatives because of a false narrative.
“There’s no driver shortage,” OOIDA Executive Vice President Lewie Pugh said at a panel discussion this summer. “There’s never been a driver shortage. That’s a myth. When you have a 90% turnover rate, you don’t have a shortage.” LL