Tariff suspension boosts truck driver demand for another month

A trade war with China and pending tariffs drove businesses to continue frontloading inventories, creating more trucking jobs in April, albeit temporarily.

According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more than 1,000 truck driver jobs were added to the economy in April. This was the fourth monthly increase in the past six months, which was preceded by a nearly one-year downward spiral.

The trucking industry has been purging itself of truckers after a flood of new drivers entered the market in the wake of the pandemic, boosting rates. Trucking jobs have been disappearing nearly every month since peak employment in July 2022. However, the looming threat of tariffs and a trade war with China has propped up trucking in recent months, as shippers and receivers try to get ahead.

Revised data shows that fewer trucking jobs were added than initially reported. Last month’s employment report revealed a net gain of 6,800 truck drivers in February and March, but updated numbers indicated an increase of only 4,000 jobs. Since last October, employment in trucking is up by 10,000 jobs.

Most of those gains came in March, largely the result of a trade war and global tariffs that were expected to hit on April 9. However, President Donald Trump put a 90-day pause on those tariffs, except for the one on China, giving businesses more time to prepare. That pause is likely what was behind April’s increased demand in trucking.

Although the suspension of tariffs has pushed up demand for freight, the active trade war with China could have immediate effects.

David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, told Land Line that Chinese imports and exports are “grinding to just a trickle,” potentially putting downward pressure on trucking jobs in May. That pressure may be exacerbated if the 90-day tariff pause is allowed to expire.

“Should deals be reached with China and our other key trading partners, we could see a resurgence in demand that would generate a need for additional capacity and enable employment to hold steady or even increase from here,” Spencer said. “The uncertainty alone will likely lead to job stability, as carriers will do everything they can to retain quality drivers if there is even a small chance that they will be needed in the near term. Challenges with hiring drivers in the COVID era when they were needed are still fresh in their minds.”

Long term, employment in trucking was down significantly. Trucking jobs were down by 4,000 from April 2024. Compared to peak employment in July 2022, there were more than 63,000 fewer truck drivers.

Accounting for all transportation-sector jobs, employment increased by 29,000 jobs in April.

The transportation sector’s net increase also reflects reactions to pending tariffs and a trade war.

The largest increase came from the warehouse and storage subsector (up 9,800 jobs), followed by couriers/messengers (up 8,400) and air transport (up 2,900). Water transport was the only subsector to experience a job loss (minus 300). Employment in rail transportation was virtually unchanged.

Month to month, wages were up in April. Average weekly earnings of all employees in the transportation and warehousing sector saw a nearly $12 increase to $1,214.79. Compared to April 2024, hourly earnings increased to $31.39 from $30.48. Accounting only for production and nonsupervisory employees, average weekly earnings increased sharply by more than $20 to $1,156.93. Year to year, hourly earnings rose by $1.05 to $230.05.

Across all industries, the nation gained 177,000 jobs, blowing past projections of an increase of only 135,000 jobs, according to financial data company FactSet. Mohamed El-Erian, president of Queens’ College of Cambridge and chief economic adviser at European financial services company Allianz, suggested April’s employment shows U.S. economic resiliency.

“While many will dismiss this report as ‘the past,’ these numbers suggest U.S. economic resilience going into an uncertain period,” El-Erian posted on social media. “With favorable supply and demand signals from the jobs report, it becomes virtually a certainty that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates next week.”

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2%. Compared to the previous year, the unemployment rate for the transportation sector fell by 1.1 percentage points to 3.6%. That was still above the pre-pandemic December 2019 level of 2.8% but far below the 15.7% high in May and July 2020. However, the unemployment rate for transportation and material-moving occupations across all sectors was up 1.1 percentage points to 6.1%. LL