New truck sales flat, masking the true story

New commercial truck sales have remained more or less flat from February to January, but that doesn’t tell the whole story.

Preliminary data for net orders of North American Class 8 trucks in February shows 21,000 units sold, reports ACT Research.

Net orders for Classes 5-7 trucks in North America rose to 18,300 units. Complete industry data for February, including final order numbers, is expected to be published by ACT Research in mid-March.

Columbus, Ind.-based ACT Research publishes commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry data, market analysis, and forecasts for the North American and Chinese markets. ACT’s analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their suppliers, as well as banking and investment companies.

“Constrained production capabilities and long backlogs continue to impede new order activity. Based on preliminary February inputs, North American Classes 5-8 net orders were essentially flat compared to January,” Kenny Vieth, ACT’s president and senior analyst, said in a news release.

Weak commercial truck orders can be attributed to supply constraints, Vieth added, but the ground rules of data collection play a part.

“The (original equipment manufacturers) only report orders that are scheduled to be built within 12 months. With backlogs effectively stretching 12 months, and with limited forward visibility, order volumes have largely been mirroring production activity,” he said.

That means weak new order activity doesn’t tell the whole story, he said.

“As has been the case for months, we reiterate that, with critical industry demand drivers at or near record levels, industry strength should be measured with long backlog lead-times, rather than in tepid new order activity,” Vieth said.

ACT publishes its State of the Industry: Classes 5-8 Vehicles report monthly. It shows the current production, sales, and general state of the on-road heavy- and medium-duty commercial vehicle markets in North America. It breaks out market indicators by class groups. It also segments Class 8 market into trucks and tractors, with and without sleeper cabs. Historical data from 1996 and preliminary net order data is included. LL

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