Mexican computer imports continue surge, but weak Canadian cargo weighs down overall cross-border freight

Although freight movement at the southern border continued to grow, a significant slowdown in Canadian freight caused a net decrease in cross-border freight in June.

According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, truck freight valued at nearly $87 billion was hauled across the borders in June. That was a decrease of 2% compared to June 2023 and a 4% drop from May.

June’s year-to-year decrease was only the fourth time in three-and-a-half years that cross-border freight showed signs of regression. Trucking freight across North America has been trending upward since November 2020. Only three other decreases have occurred since then: a 2% decrease in February 2021, a 1% decrease in December 2023 and a 4.5% decrease in March.

Cross-border freight hauled by trucks across the U.S. southern border increased by 3% compared to June 2023, led by a surge in computer-related freight. But at the northern border, the value of freight dropped by 7%, resulting in a net decrease for North American freight.

The top three truck commodities at the northern border were computers/parts ($6.2 billion, down 6%), vehicles ($5 billion, down 21%) and electrical machinery ($2.6 billion, down 0.4%). At the Mexican border, top commodities included computers/parts ($12.3 billion, up 25%), electrical machinery ($11 billion, up 1%) and vehicles ($7.3 billion, up 2%).

In its monthly economic report, Motive pointed out that “Mexico is now firmly established as the (United States’) largest importer.” With Chinese imports down 20% year-to-year, U.S. companies are moving nearshoring to Mexico.

Motive predicted that computer-related cross-border freight will continue its upward trend and that Mexico will remain the top importer until at least 2030.

“As U.S. companies continue to invest in building AI technology, demand for these materials will likely continue to grow, fueling higher Mexican imports in these areas in the next few years,” Hamish Woodrow, Motive’s head of strategic analytics, stated in the report.

By weight, cross-border freight hauled by trucks was down by 2% compared to the previous year and decreased by 5.8% compared to May. Year-to-year, North American truck freight by weight has increased only six times since July 2022, with three of those increases in 2024.

Top Canadian commodities for trucking by weight included wood (up 3%), paper (up 17%) and vehicles (down 18%). In Mexico, the top three commodities were vehicles (down 2%), salt/sulfur/plaster/cement (up 73%) and edible vegetables/roots (down 15%).

Accounting for all modes of transportation, the total value of cross-border freight reached more than $134 billion in June. That was a decrease of less than 1% compared to the previous year and a 3% drop compared to the previous month.

Overall cross-border freight value has been trending downward since March 2023. Last year, cross-border freight dropped in eight months, including a seven-month streak that started in March. However, the value of North American freight has now increased five times since October.

Canadian freight is down 3% compared to the previous year, whereas Mexican freight rose by 2%.

By weight, freight crossing the borders went down by 1% compared to June 2023 and decreased by 3% compared to May.

A decline in trucking freight weighed down the overall value of cross-border freight. Airfreight was the only other mode to experience a slower month in June, with a 5% decrease. Pipeline (up 10%), rail (up 3%) and vessel (up 1%) all saw year-to-year growth. LL