Traffic fatalities highest in nearly two decades

More motorists returned to the roadways last year, a possible factor leading to the largest annual percentage increase in traffic fatalities on record.

Compared to 2020, that National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is projecting traffic fatalities overall increased by about 10.5% in 2021. NHTSA estimates nearly 43,000 people were killed in motor vehicle crashes last year, up from nearly 39,000 in 2020. That is the most fatalities since 2005 when there were 43,510 deaths reported.

Specific to large trucks, fatal crashes involving at least one truck went up 13%.

The increase in large truck-involved traffic fatalities comes on the heels of a decrease in fatal crashes involving large trucks. In 2020, deaths resulting from a crash involving at least one large truck went down by 2% during a time when traffic deaths increased nearly across the board.

NHTSA defines a large truck as any vehicle with a gross vehicle weight rating of more than 10,000 pounds. That includes large trucks both in commercial and non-commercial use at the time of the crash. Data does not reflect whether the truck driver was at fault.

Other large increases in traffic fatalities were seen in the following categories:

(Reversing the trend seen in 2020.)

(Still higher as compared to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.)

(Reversing the declining trend in fatalities to those 65 and older seen in 2020.)

However, the estimated traffic fatality rate for 2021 was 1.33 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled. That is slightly down from the 1.34 fatalities per 100 million vehicle miles traveled in 2020.

NHTSA’s latest traffic fatality numbers are early estimates only. Estimated results are subject to change as more information gets coded into these cases as well as when more cases are entered into the 2021 Fatality Analysis Reporting System, according to NHTSA. Results also may change as the final file for 2020 fatality counts and the annual reporting file for 2021 are available later this year.

Traffic fatalities up across the board

Taking a look at all categories included in NHTSA’s early estimates, no demographic was spared from the increase in traffic fatalities.

Rural and urban interstates, arterial and local/collector roadways all experienced more traffic fatalities. By percentage change, urban local/collector roads saw the largest jump with a 20% increase. The smallest increase (1%) was on rural local/collector roadways.

Likely the result of increases in vehicle miles traveled, motorists ages 35-44 killed in a crash increased by 15%, the highest increase by age group. Not counting those under the age of 16, motorists 16-24 and 55-64 experienced the smallest decrease in traffic fatalities (7% each).

Alcohol-involved traffic fatalities increased by 5% last year. However, that is the result of increases within the first four months of 2021. The last seven months of the year all experienced decreases in alcohol-involved fatalities regarding percentage of total fatalities. During the first year of the pandemic, alcohol-involved traffic fatalities increased by 9%.

Speeding remains a factor. Nearly 12,000 people were killed in a speeding-related crash, a 5% increase from 2020 when speeding-related fatalities rose by 11% from the previous year.

Driving behavior getting riskier

As was the case in the increase in traffic fatalities in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic likely plays a role in last year’s increase as well.

NHTSA’s early traffic fatalities estimate for 2020 released last year revealed that more people were killed as a result of a motor vehicle crash compared to the previous year. However, vehicle miles traveled decreased.

Historically, there is a positive correlation between vehicle miles traveled and traffic fatalities. Statistically, the more time vehicles spend on the road, the more likely they are to be involved in a crash. That was not the case in 2020.

NHTSA pinned the blame on a change in driving behavior.

“NHTSA’s research suggests that throughout the national public health emergency and associated lockdowns, driving patterns and behaviors changed significantly, and that drivers who remained on the roads engaged in more risky behavior, including speeding, failing to wear seat belts, and driving under the influence of drugs or alcohol,” the report states. “Traffic data indicates that average speeds increased throughout the year, and examples of extreme speeds became more common, while the evidence also shows that fewer people involved in crashes used their seat belts.”

According to NHTSA, factors driving up last year’s traffic fatalities are the same factors that drove up increases in 2020.

“These key factors may be linked to changes in driving and travel patterns and transportation options owing to COVID-19 emergency measures,” NHTSA said in its report. “In 2020, the stay-at-home orders started in mid-March, followed by the first full month of stay-at-home measures in April. During May, some states began to reopen in some way while almost all states partially reopened by June. After June, states continued to adapt their local and statewide COVID-19 guidelines and assess specific reopening and potential re-closing efforts accordingly.”

Catch me if you can

Last November, an AAA report suggested that more motorists are identifying unsafe driving behaviors as such, thereby reducing those behaviors. However, most drivers do not believe law enforcement will catch them in the act.

In the report, AAA identified a dozen unsafe driving behaviors in four categories: distracted, aggressive, drowsy/impaired, and other. Although there is a consensus with most of the behaviors, motorists appear to have no issue with speeding.

Within the distracted category, about 95% of motorists surveyed identified reading, texting or emailing on cellphones as either extremely dangerous or very dangerous. More than three-quarters believe holding and talking on a cellphone is extremely or very dangerous.

However, when it comes to aggressive driving, there is less agreement about the severity of unsafe driving behaviors. At best, nearly 90% view driving aggressively (e.g., switching lanes quickly, driving very closely behind another car) as highly dangerous, with about 85% saying the same about driving through a red light.

On the other hand, only half of motorists believe driving 15 mph over the speed limit on the freeways is highly dangerous. Less than two-thirds view driving 10 mph over the speed limit as extremely or very dangerous.

Among all behaviors, less than half of motorists believe it is very or even somewhat likely the police will catch them. Meaning, most motorists think they can get away with unsafe driving behavior.

Motorists are most convinced they will get busted for drinking and driving, with about 48% finding that outcome somewhat likely.

Despite ranking the unsafe driving behavior low, 42% believe they will get caught speeding 15 mph or more over the speed limit on freeways, the second-highest behind drinking and driving. LL