OOIDA Foundation shines light on driver turnover problem

By now, academic researchers and government agencies have provided more than enough evidence showing that there is not a driver shortage in the trucking industry.

However, that doesn’t prevent large motor carriers and the American Trucking Associations from pushing that narrative.

That’s why the OOIDA Foundation recently released an overview of the real issues in the trucking industry.

In its new white paper, “The Churn: A Brief Look at the Roots of High Driver Turnover in U.S. Trucking,” the research arm of the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association dispels the notion that there is a driver shortage and, instead, places the spotlight on annual turnover rates of 90% or higher for major truckload carriers.

“We wanted to have something to present to lawmakers or regulators or academics that would give them a solid overview of the situation, how it started, what it looks like right now and what portions of the driving industry it affects,” Charles Sperry, research analyst for the OOIDA Foundation, recently told Land Line Now.

ATA has claimed for years that there has been a shortage of truck drivers. That message is often repeated by lawmakers and regulators.

The OOIDA Foundation’s report explains the real reasons the trucking industry continues to attract new drivers only to spit them out the other end.

“Only by understanding the systemic and structural reasons for churn can industry and policymakers begin to allow genuine market forces to work toward a more sustainable equilibrium – one where driving a truck is a viable, even desirable long-term occupation, not a grueling trial with razor-thin margins that one endures only until a better opportunity comes along,” the OOIDA Foundation wrote.

The Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association has said for years that there is not a driver shortage. In recent years, multiple studies have backed up OOIDA’s words.

A 2024 study from the National Academies of Sciences said that the idea of a driver shortage goes against the basic economic principles of supply and demand. Previous studies came from economics professor Stephen V. Burks and the U.S. Department of Labor. All of the studies revealed that there is not a shortage of truck drivers. Instead, any issues in the labor supply could be corrected by increasing wages.

Perpetual churn

According to the OOIDA Foundation, the roots of high driver turnover rates date back to deregulation through the Motor Carrier Act of 1980. Deregulation allowed thousands of new carriers to enter the market, leading to increased competition and reduced profit margins.

“This competitive landscape effectively eliminated companies’ ability to raise pay significantly without losing business, embedding high turnover as a standard business strategy,” the OOIDA Foundation wrote. “In today’s highly fragmented truckload sector, minimal differentiation among employers keeps drivers cycling between similar low-quality jobs or leaving the industry entirely rather than seeing substantial improvements in pay or conditions.”

Rather than a driver shortage, the OOIDA Foundation noted that what the industry is experiencing is high turnover that’s become the standard operating model for large carriers.

Why hasn’t it been corrected?

The OOIDA Foundation said that several intertwined factors mute the natural market corrections that would typically resolve labor shortages:

• Extreme competition: Intense competition restricts carriers from raising wages significantly without losing business.
• Labor supply inflation: Industry and government initiatives continually increase the labor pool through non-market means, artificially depressing wages.
• Regulatory loopholes: The overtime exemption for motor carriers and misclassification practices shift costs onto drivers, artificially suppressing market wages.
• Limited bargaining power: Fragmented and individually powerless drivers cannot negotiate better conditions effectively.
• Information asymmetry: Many new drivers enter the industry under misconceptions about earnings and conditions – ones sometimes intentionally fostered by dishonest parties – which maintains a high turnover cycle.

“The persistent churn in trucking results from systemic distortions rather than a genuine shortage,” the OOIDA Foundation wrote. “Addressing these foundational issues – realigning incentives, improving transparency and reforming exploitative practices – would allow genuine market corrections, fostering a more stable, sustainable workforce. Until then, the trucking industry remains trapped in a cycle of perpetual churn, undermining its long-term efficiency and safety.”

However, history suggests that large carriers likely want the driver turnover model to continue.

“It’s basic laws of supply and demand … If you artificially expand the supply of the labor pool, then you don’t have to pay as much for it,” Sperry said. “In any job, you’re going to have a basic supply of people who can fulfill that job. In the trucking industry, that’s anyone who can get their CDL. So, you have these large carriers who say, ‘We don’t have enough drivers. We need the government to come in and put its thumb on the scale and subsidize driver training programs. We need you to lower the ages at which you are allowed to be a driver. We need to get more people to become drivers by running these massive campaigns.’ So instead of just increasing wages and increasing benefits to attract more people, they try to get the government and others to do their job for them.”

Studies show that experienced truck drivers are the safest drivers. OOIDA contends that the driver shortage myth is harmful to the industry and highway safety, as it prevents potential drivers from making it their long-term occupation. LL