How will autonomous trucks affect owner-operators?

Self-driving trucks will eventually eliminate a lot of driving jobs, experts say, but there will still be a role for drivers and owner-operators in the type of “hub-to-hub” operations now envisioned by experts. Human drivers would pull trailers along the shorter spokes radiating from the major hubs, which will serve driverless rigs.

That’s one take-away from a discussion on how autonomous trucks will be used in perhaps five to 10 years. Along with electric- and hydrogen-electric propulsion, automation will be a major and disruptive development for the trucking industry, attendees seemed to agree.

Organized by the North American Council for Freight Efficiency, the workshop in Indianapolis included representatives of small high-tech companies now developing and testing automated equipment, plus component makers and fleets looking to buy and run the trucks. Two journalists, including me, were also there. The council’s executive director, Mike Roeth, stipulated that we couldn’t quote anybody but we could write about the ideas expressed.

Here are some main points.

Automated hub-to-hub runs are the most logical use of driverless trucks because situations encountered on rural interstate highways are relatively simple to deal with. Programmers can write algorithms for steady cruising, slowing, speeding up, navigating construction zones, crash scenes and the like. Getting through city and suburban traffic and backing trailers into crowded loading docks are examples of work more suited to human brains. One speaker said hubs could be set up outside major metro areas, such as Nashville, Tenn.; Phoenix; and Los Angeles. Freight-carrying trailers would be picked up by automated tractors and pulled from one hub to another, and either relayed beyond or taken by human drivers to consignees. Drivers also would pick up loaded trailers from shippers and pull them to hubs.

Spoke-trip length would vary from short local runs to regional hauls of several hundred miles.

Hubs might resemble today’s assembly and breakdown areas for long combination vehicles adjacent to toll roads and turnpikes. In addition, they’d have receiving and “launch” lanes for automated rigs as well as servicing and repair areas. Workers would inspect tractors and trailers and fuel and repair them as necessary. There’d also be a transfer area, where trailers would be parked and picked up by autonomous and driven tractors.

Continuous running would be possible because autonomous trucks needn’t stop for human needs, such as restroom breaks, meals and sleeping. Tractors could run 24 hours a day, every day, except for time required at hubs and downtime for repairs. They’d quickly accumulate miles, perhaps 250,000 to 300,000 miles per year or more, and need to be serviced more frequently than your typical 100,000-mile-per-year tractor. Self-driving tractors probably will wear out in three years and face an uncertain retirement. Will there be a secondary market for them, in North America or overseas, or would they be disassembled and their components refurbished and reused in new autonomous chassis?

What will autonomous trucks look like?

They certainly wouldn’t need sleeper compartments, so they might resemble current daycab tractors that could accommodate human drivers when necessary. The tractors might have no cabs at all and could be moved around the hubs by workers using hand-held devices. Overall, there might be a mix of cab and cabless tractors as operators determine what works best for them. Trailers, meanwhile, will have to have “smart” equipment to monitor all systems so they can be quickly maintained and stay on the road with those tractors.

Fully automated trucks will make economic sense because they eliminate most manpower costs. Partially automated trucks requiring humans on board make little to no sense because wages still have to be paid. Today’s demonstration runs by developers include humans as safety backups, but proponents claim computers will operate trucks much more safely than human drivers. Reducing accidents will help pay for automation. So will fuel savings, because trucks will always operate in the most efficient manner compared to what some drivers feel like doing. Yes, at least two drivers would be needed for each automated run – one on each end, and more at hubs – like today’s intermodal service. But time behind the wheel would be far less than today’s long-hauling.

Long-haul, irregular-route operations by human truckers will still exist because it’d be difficult to program tractor computers to drive everywhere on their own.

Automated equipment could help owner-operators save driving time by freeing them to head for the sleeper for some periods of Interstate operation, but human eyes and brains would be necessary on secondary roads and during loading and unloading.

Owner-operators might become more specialized, entrusted with fragile cargoes or goods requiring “white glove” care at their destinations, like now. But “touchless” freight wouldn’t need much driver help. Owner-operators also might become driver-managers, monitoring the operations of the tractors they’re in on those spokes, or even observing or remotely controlling tractors they’ve taken to hubs for operations beyond. One owner-operator could monitor several autonomous tractors simultaneously, presumably earning decent money with little physical effort. How would you like that?

On a personal note, to attend the meeting in Indianapolis the night before I drove from Ohio to Indiana on what should have been a four-hour trip. Instead, I ran into a miles-long backup of traffic caused by a total shutdown of I-70 by construction work east of Indy. It cost me four hours. Evidently Indiana’s highway authorities thought it was OK to close off the highway, but the hundreds of delayed drivers would’ve disagreed. Most were sitting in big-rig tractors, lights on and engines idling, and those paid by the mile were earning nothing.

“Now this would be a good application for autonomous trucks,” I thought to myself. “Trucks would be tied up and freight delayed, but no drivers would suffer from this mess.” LL