Coming to a lane near you

For the first time in the U.S., driverless trucks are set to hit public roadways in 2025, perhaps setting the stage for how the future of trucking may look.

The next year has the potential to be the biggest on record for autonomous trucks. Three companies have plans to deploy driverless trucks on certain public roadways in 2025. Meanwhile, the federal government and some state governments are considering regulations that could either expedite or delay progress.

One thing seems certain: Driverless trucks are coming. How soon and to what extent may hinge on what happens in 2025.

Texas showdown

All eyes will be on Texas highways as several autonomous tech companies plan to deploy driverless trucks in the Lone Star state, providing an idea of whether they are ready for prime time.

Autonomous truck operations have been taking place on the nation’s highways for a few years now. However, they have been limited to include a human safety driver behind the wheel at all times.

In 2024, Kodiak Robotics and Aurora Innovation both announced they would start truly driverless truck operations in Texas by the end of the year. That meant removing the human safety driver and cutting the autonomous truck loose. Both companies planned to use a Dallas-to-Houston route for their driverless operations.

Those plans to deploy driverless trucks on public roadways have been delayed. However, motorists will likely share Interstate 45 and other public roads in Texas with driverless trucks in 2025.

Kodiak and Atlas Energy Solutions have been operating autonomous trucks with no human on board in the Permian Basin. That operation takes place on private roads with little-to-no traffic at speeds averaging below 20 mph.

Kodiak told Land Line it plans to launch 24/7 driverless truck service with Atlas in early 2025. Once the company feels its trucks are ready, it will deploy them on public highways.

“While Kodiak’s focus on the Atlas partnership changes the timing of its on-road driverless launch, the partnership will be of enormous benefit to Kodiak and its on-highway customers, as it will allow Kodiak to gain unique experience managing the complexities of 24/7 driverless operations,” Kodiak said in a statement. “Kodiak will share more details about its on-road launch date at a later time.”

For Aurora, its current autonomous truck route with safety drivers from Fort Worth to El Paso will expand to Phoenix in the first half of the year and go driverless sometime in the second half. In its third-quarter business update, the company announced it will deploy up to 10 driverless trucks in April, ramping up “to tens of trucks by the end of 2025.”

Too much money has been invested in driverless trucks for their public debut to be further delayed. In addition to Kodiak and Aurora, a third player entered the game when Waabi announced $200 million in Series B funding will allow it to deploy fully driverless trucks in 2025. By comparison, rival company Kodiak secured $125 million in Series B funding in 2021, three years after it started. Aurora raised more than half a billion dollars in Series B funding in 2019, just two years after it launched. But unlike Kodiak and Waabi, Aurora’s technology has been integrated into both passenger and commercial vehicles.

In August, Aurora raised nearly $500 million, adding to its $1 billion of liquidity. Co-founder and CEO Chris Urmson said the injection of money will “fund the initial phase of our scaling strategy.”

Essentially a real-world experiment, driverless truck operations in Texas will inform the public about how reliable the technology is in terms of safety and efficiency. As of September, Kodiak had logged 3.5 million miles and delivered more than 6,000 loads. Aurora had hauled more than 8,000 loads across more than 2 million miles, all of which included a human driver.

The margin of error for driverless trucks on public roads will be small. Trucks operated by Aurora, Kodiak and Waabi will be heavily scrutinized and held to the higher standard that the companies themselves have set.

In a way, 2025 could make or break the autonomous truck industry. One fatal crash would grab headlines, potentially prompting federal and state lawmakers to reconsider existing regulations or establish new ones.

Regulatory hurdles

How far driverless trucks go, literally and figuratively, will depend on how governments decide to regulate them.

Driverless truck operations are based in Texas not only due to the favorable freight and weather conditions but also due to the state’s friendly regulations for autonomous vehicles. With the federal government notably absent from any kind of oversight, it may be up to the states to decide where driverless trucks go.

Despite efforts by lawmakers in California to limit autonomous vehicle operations, driverless trucks can proceed in the Golden State. For a second time, Gov. Gavin Newsom vetoed a bill that would have prohibited autonomous trucks from operating in the state without a human safety driver.

Similar bills have been introduced in Delaware and New York. Both bills have failed to gain traction and have little chance of survival.

According to the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, only six states and the District of Columbia explicitly require a human safety driver: Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Massachusetts, New York and Vermont. There are only about 10 states that have not addressed autonomous vehicles at all, with the remaining states allowing driverless vehicles for at least testing if not full deployment.

Even though there is support both from members of Congress and the autonomous vehicle industry, there has been little movement from the federal government to oversee driverless trucks or any other kind of Level 4 or 5 vehicles. The closest thing so far to a federal rulemaking has come from the Department of Commerce.

Addressing security concerns, the Department of Commerce issued a notice of proposed rulemaking that would essentially prohibit transactions involving connected vehicle technology manufactured by China or other “foreign adversaries.” The proposed rule has garnered widespread support, including from the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association and the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association.

“OOIDA has raised safety and cybersecurity concerns regarding the development of autonomous vehicles as the technology has been deployed in recent years,” the Association wrote in formal comments. “We believe this Department of Commerce proposal can help implement necessary federal oversight for autonomous vehicle safety and protect private personal and vehicle information.”

Even if enacted, that rule will have little-to-no effect on driverless truck operations in the U.S. With no other type of federal oversight of autonomous vehicles in sight, driverless truck companies will keep their focus on states with welcoming regulations.

What happens in Texas could steer which direction other states take their driverless truck regulations.

Tesla Full Self-Driving investigation

Perhaps the biggest point of concern is safety, an issue the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is examining.

In October, NHTSA launched an investigation into Tesla’s Full Self-Driving feature. Only a Level 2 autonomous feature, it allows the vehicle to take control of driving functions in limited conditions.

The investigation was prompted by several crashes involving Tesla vehicles using the Full Self-Driving feature, including one that killed a pedestrian. Investigators are looking into the feature’s ability to respond to reduced roadway visibility conditions, including sun glare, fog and airborne dust.

NHTSA’s investigation may not directly affect driverless truck operations. However, if it finds that Level 2 features are unsafe, how will the public trust Level 4 driverless trucks?

It may be that none of that matters if Aurora, Kodiak and Waabi have a great year in 2025. The near-term future of driverless trucks hinges on what happens in Texas. LL