Back to the status quo
It goes without saying that the COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted nearly all aspects of transportation, making an asterisk next to 2020 data seem necessary. Numbers for 2024 are coming in, and it looks like things are returning to normal, which is both good and bad.
When the pandemic hit its peak, quarantine executive orders and remote work kept people at home and vehicles in garages. Empty highways near metro areas looked almost apocalyptic. Consequently, traffic congestion became much less of a problem.
Despite vehicle miles traveled plummeting, traffic fatalities went up as many of the motorists who remained on the road viewed the open highways as a lawless version of the Autobahn. More dangerous driving behavior results in more deaths, regardless of how many vehicles are on the road.
In the wake of the pandemic, we were left with more traffic deaths but less traffic congestion. But as the world slowly began to reclaim normalcy, transportation has also been on a steady path toward the status quo. For traffic fatalities, that’s a good thing, but for traffic congestion, we are now worse off than where we were in 2019.
Traffic fatalities nearing pre-pandemic levels
According to new data released by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, there were more than 18,700 traffic fatalities in the first half of 2024. Although that number is a lot by any standard, it is a 3% decrease compared to the first six months of 2023.
Traffic fatalities dropped by 3.5% in the first three months of this year and nearly 3% in April through June. The second-quarter decrease was the ninth consecutive quarterly drop of a streak that began in the second quarter of 2022.
That reduction in traffic fatalities came despite an increase in vehicle miles traveled (VMT), which rose by nearly 1%, or 13 billion miles. VMT plummeted in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the previous year, as stay-at-home orders took cars off roads. After most quarantine restrictions were lifted in late 2020, VMT spiked before reaching pre-pandemic levels and regaining more equilibrium.
Consequently, the fatality rate – which is the number of traffic fatalities per 100 million VMT – also dropped.
In the first half of 2024, the fatality rate dropped from 1.21 in 2023 to 1.17. That marked the lowest fatality rate in the first half of a year since 2019, when the rate was 1.07. The pandemic boosted the fatality rate in 2020 and 2021, but it has been steadily decreasing since 2022.
Geographically, traffic fatalities are down this year in most parts of the country, with seven of 10 regions experiencing a drop in both the total number of deaths and the fatality rate. Region 4 (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Tennessee) experienced the lowest drop, at 9%. Meanwhile, Region 2 (New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania) had the highest increase, at 4%.
Nearly two-thirds of states saw traffic fatalities go down in the second half of this year.
As a percentage change, Rhode Island experienced the largest drop (minus 54%), whereas Maine had the largest increase (71%). Rhode Island also had the lowest fatality rate (0.48), while Mississippi had the highest rate (1.80).
Data from NHTSA highlights how disruptive the pandemic was to transportation and the steady recovery to normalcy. Leading up to the first quarter of 2020, traffic fatalities had dropped in nine of the 11 preceding quarters before going on a seven-quarter streak of increases. With the exception of a few small upticks, the annual fatality rate has been trending downward for decades, reaching 1.11 in 2019. However, the rate jumped to 1.34 in 2020, the highest it has been since 2007, when it hit 1.36. Although last year’s rate of 1.26 is the highest since 2008, it has been going down the road toward pre-pandemic levels.
Traffic jam
While traffic fatalities are going down, traffic congestion is way up since the pandemic.
That’s according to a report released by transportation data company StreetLight Data that looked into how vehicle miles traveled and traffic congestion have changed since 2019. The short answer: Americans are driving more, generating worsening traffic conditions.
In theory, an increase in work-from-home opportunities created by the pandemic would decrease vehicle miles traveled and traffic congestion in the nation’s 100 largest metros. In practice, Americans have reverted to pre-pandemic driving habits and beyond.
According to the report, traffic congestion was down in May 2024 compared to May 2019 in only two metro areas in the nation: San Francisco (minus 0.4%) and Albuquerque (minus 0.3%). Congestion was unchanged in four metros, including Los Angeles. Everywhere else, traffic was worse than before the pandemic, dominated by areas on or near the East Coast:
- Boise, Idaho (3%)
- Buffalo, N.Y. (2.8%)
- Cape Coral, Fla. (2.7%)
- New Haven, Conn. (2.7%)
- Lakeland, Fla. (2.6%)
- Syracuse, N.Y. (2.5%)
- North Port-Sarasota, Fla. (2.5%)
- Bridgeport-Stamford, Conn. (2.5%)
- Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J. (2.4%)
- Scranton, Pa. (2.3%)
Those were the worst metros by a percentage change in traffic congestion since 2019. Accounting for overall congestion, the usual suspects were the worst places to drive, including:
- Los Angeles
- Miami-Fort Lauderdale
- New York-Newark-Jersey City
- McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
- Bridgeport-Stamford, Conn.
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, Calif.
- San Francisco
- Philadelphia
- Chicago
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla.
Worsening traffic congestion is strongly correlated with miles driven. Vehicle miles traveled in May were at or below spring 2019 levels in only 13 metro areas.
Only four metros had a double-digit decrease, all in California and led by Los Angeles (minus 17%). There were massive increases in vehicle miles traveled in Boise (up 58%) and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas (68%).
Per capita, vehicle miles traveled were lowest in California, New York and Washington state. Conversely, the metros with the highest miles driven per capita were all in the Southeast. StreetLight Data’s report notes this was likely due to differences in population densities and availability of public transit. Drilling down to the top 25 core downtown areas, the situation was slightly better. Vehicle miles traveled were down in 18 of 25 major downtowns, including several double-digit drops as high as 25%. However, traffic congestion was better in only seven downtown areas, led by Minneapolis (down 1.5%).
Although there were double-digit decreases in vehicle miles traveled, the only two decreases in traffic congestion in metro areas were a fraction of a percent. In fact, Los Angeles had the largest drop in vehicle miles traveled, but congestion was the same as it had been four years earlier. It took a 25% drop in miles driven in downtown San Francisco to yield a 0.5% drop in congestion.
According to StreetLight Data, this discrepancy suggests that “congestion is quite stubborn.” The report states that the go-to solution for traffic congestion – adding more roads and lanes – has not solved the problem.
“For transportation agencies and their partners at the local, state and federal level tackling congestion and VMT on behalf of safety, equity, public health, climate or economic goals, infrastructure investments like transit and denser land use can help pull the VMT trendline downward while supporting GDP,” StreetLight states in the report. “The challenge is reimagining cities and suburbs to enable vibrant, less vehicle-centric lifestyles.” LL