ATA’s driver shortage numbers fall short

The idea that the trucking industry is plagued by a driver shortage has been a powerful and widely accepted narrative for years.

Every year, the American Trucking Associations releases a new report about how many drivers the industry is lacking and how the number is going to increase even more in the coming years. ATA then uses that report to justify policies in the industry.

When ATA tried to convince Congress that allowing 18-year-olds to operate in interstate commerce was necessary, the organization pointed to a shortage of truck drivers as the reason.

And when ATA testified at a House subcommittee hearing in September, the trucking group again used the “driver shortage” to justify the deployment of driverless trucks.

Fearful of potential supply chain disruptions that a driver shortage could cause, many lawmakers have supported ATA on these issues despite the obvious safety concerns.

But what if the driver shortage is fabricated?

A recent report from the OOIDA Foundation uses ATA’s own numbers to demonstrate that there in fact is not a driver shortage in the trucking industry.

“The American Trucking Associations has claimed a perpetual driver shortage for nearly 40 years,” the OOIDA Foundation report states. “Such an ongoing shortage, however, is not possible. The historical market pattern of the trucking industry provides overwhelming evidence that ATA’s claim of a long-term shortage is without merit.”

Analyzing reports back to 2015, the OOIDA Foundation’s analysis points out large discrepancies in ATA’s projections. In ATA’s 2015 report, it predicted a shortage of 73,500 drivers by 2016 and 160,000 by 2023. By the time ATA released the 2016 and 2023 reports, however, the organization indicated that its projections were off by 50% and 62.5%, respectively.

In addition, ATA has never provided the methodology for how it arrives at these numbers.

“It just highlights that whatever methodology they’re using – which they never tell you how they’re arriving at their number – is absolutely wrong and false,” said Andrew King of the OOIDA Foundation.

OOIDA has long argued that trucking has a driver retention problem rather than a shortage. Turnover rates at large fleets are often 90% or higher, and statistics from the American Association of Motor Vehicle Administrators show that states issue more than 400,000 new commercial driver’s licenses each year.

“For far too long, this narrative has been out there on a driver shortage,” OOIDA Executive Vice President Lewie Pugh said. “We all know that there is no driver shortage. There’s a driver turnover problem. You could say that there’s somewhat of an experienced driver shortage … but there is no driver shortage.”

OOIDA isn’t alone in its assessment. A 2019 report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics also determined that there wasn’t a shortage. And in July, NBC News reported that truckers were coping with low freight rates due to overcapacity in the industry.

Earlier this year, FreightWaves called the driver shortage a myth. ATA pushed back but then didn’t accept offers to debate the issue.

If there really is a driver shortage, then why not debate? But here’s an even better question: If there’s been a driver shortage for decades, wouldn’t companies be bending over backward to improve the occupation by increasing wages and benefits?

Truck driver salaries have increased some in recent years, but not at the rate you would expect if there actually was a drastic driver shortage.

“Those who perpetuate the notion of a driver shortage ask you to believe that basic laws of supply and demand simply don’t work,” OOIDA President Todd Spencer said in a 2018 video. “They say we’ve got a shortage, but if there’s a shortage in anything, it will be reflected in the price or value of that particular service. Incomes for drivers adjusted for inflation going back to 1980 would be twice what they are right now.” LL