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We’re only a few months into a new year and a new White House administration, but 2025 is already looking to be a pivotal year for the autonomous vehicle industry, especially driverless trucks.
Three autonomous truck companies are expected to deploy truly driverless trucks on Texas highways anytime now. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s administration appears to be poised to introduce federal rules that will provide the autonomous vehicle industry the regulatory certainty it has been seeking.
The one-two punch of public road deployment and federal oversight could propel driverless trucks forward, but several hurdles still need to be crossed. Should truck drivers be worried?
Public debut
Perhaps the most consequential event for driverless trucks will be their deployment on public highways sometime this year.
Last year, Kodiak Robotics, Aurora Innovation and Waabi announced their plans to launch driverless trucks on a Dallas-to-Houston route along the Interstate 45 corridor. Aurora indicated it could deploy trucks as soon as April, while Kodiak told Land Line it could not provide a timeline. Waabi mentioned only plans “to launch fully driverless autonomous trucks in 2025.”
All three companies have been testing autonomous trucks in some fashion. In some cases, they tested trucks on public roadways with a safety driver behind the wheel. In other cases, fully driverless trucks operated on private roads. Either way, operations were conducted exclusively by the tech companies in partnership with trucking companies. That changed at the start of this year.
In late January, frac sand company Atlas Energy Solutions announced it had completed delivery of 100 loads of sand with two Kodiak RoboTrucks in the West Texas Permian Basin. Kodiak has been operating trucks with Atlas Energy since last summer. What makes the latest announcement unique is the fact the two driverless trucks were owned and operated by Atlas Energy, not Kodiak. According to the two companies, that marks the first commercial driverless trucking operation.
A few weeks prior to that, Aurora announced during the Consumer Electronics Show a partnership with Nvidia to deploy driverless trucks at scale. Nvidia, one of the largest computer chip companies, is widely seen as the leader in the global race toward artificial general intelligence.
With its Nvidia partnership, Aurora plans to mass-manufacture Level 4 driverless trucks in 2027. Level 4 autonomous driving systems do not require a human driver but have geographic and weather limitations.
“Delivering one driverless truck will be monumental,” Aurora CEO and co-founder Chris Urmson said in a statement. “Deploying thousands will change the way we live.”
Government oversight
While many industries prefer the government stay out of their business, the autonomous vehicle industry wants the federal government to get more involved, something it soon may finally get.
Because autonomous vehicles are fairly new, federal regulations, laws and official policies do not address the emerging technology. Consequently, the industry has had to follow a patchwork of state laws and regulations, many of which cannot keep up with new developments.
At the state level, some states allow driverless trucks on public roadways and some do not. Many have no official language one way or the other. Without more cohesion among states, nationwide deployment could be difficult.
The few federal regulations that directly affect driverless trucks are more harmful than helpful. One regulation limits how many autonomous vehicles a manufacturer can produce in a year, making mass production impossible. Meanwhile, Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) require vehicles to have steering wheels, pedals and other components necessary for manual operation but not needed for autonomous operation.
Earlier this year, the Autonomous Vehicle Industry Association announced its federal policy framework. The 17-page document gives recommendations to federal policymakers “to secure the United States’ position as a global leader in autonomous vehicle (AV) technology while ensuring safety, fostering innovation, and promoting economic resilience.”
Some of the key recommendations include:
- Codifying a 2018 FMCSA interpretation that a human driver is not needed in a Level 4 or 5 commercial motor vehicle
- Allowing autonomous trucks to use cab-mounted warning beacons in lieu of traditional warning devices
- Rulemaking on a core set of autonomous driving system (ADS) competency tests and requiring that commercially deployed ADS manufacturers develop a safety case
- Modernizing FMVSS by clarifying that requirements for manually operated driving controls are not applicable to Level 4 and Level 5 ADS-equipped vehicles
- Encouraging federal legislation on cybersecurity, privacy and accessibility initiatives
Trump’s administration appears to be paying attention to the autonomous vehicle industry. In addition to appointing a Department of Transportation secretary open to federal oversight, Trump also appears to be very friendly with Big Tech.
During his nomination hearing, DOT Secretary Sean Duffy told the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation that he plans to pursue rules for autonomous vehicles.
“I think we need clear rules that are going to allow our innovators to stay in America and develop products that are going to advance autonomous vehicles that they envision,” Duffy said. “Without clear rules or a patchwork of rules state by state, I think we put ourselves behind those countries that allow for innovators to expand and grow. I would commit to the committee and to the Congress that if I’m confirmed, I want to work on rules that make sure there’s clarity for those innovators.”
Meanwhile, Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has been exceptionally close to Trump, has a major stake in the future of driverless vehicles. Last year, Musk announced that Tesla plans to make the driverless Cybercab available to consumers for $30,000 before 2027.
Bumps in the road
While the near-term outlook for driverless trucks looks promising, the autonomous vehicle industry still has some obstacles in the way.
A big issue that has caught the attention of policymakers and government officials is cybersecurity. In January, the Department of Commerce finalized a rule prohibiting connected vehicles from using Chinese or Russian technology. However, that rule does not apply to commercial motor vehicles, including driverless trucks.
There are also technological hurdles to clear. While companies are already talking about deploying Level 4 driverless trucks on public highways, federal investigations are looking into the efficacy of Level 2 technology already available to consumers.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration has launched an investigation looking into Tesla’s Full Self-Driving feature, which allows the vehicle to take control of driving functions in limited conditions. That investigation was prompted by four crashes, including one that killed a pedestrian. NHTSA is looking into whether conditions as ubiquitous and seemingly trivial as sun glare, fog or dust affected the autonomous feature’s functionality.
A few months later, NHTSA launched another Tesla investigation. This time, the agency is looking into the manufacturer’s remote parking feature, which has been linked to more than a dozen crashes.
Recently, tech entrepreneur Mike Johns posted a video on LinkedIn showing a driverless Waymo taxi driving in circles while he was getting a ride to the airport. Johns nearly missed his flight because of the glitch, highlighting the technological problems driverless vehicles face.
It’s no wonder then why a AAA survey reveals that more than 60% of U.S. drivers are afraid of self-driving vehicles, while another 26% are unsure about the emerging technology. Only 13% indicated that they trust fully autonomous vehicles.
Driverless trucks may have a breakthrough year in 2025, but it will likely be a while before they enjoy widespread acceptance and adoption. LL