Latest employment numbers support optimistic freight market outlook headed into 2025

In the wake of disruptive hurricanes, a major port strike and a pivotal presidential election, trucking jobs increased in November, strengthening beliefs that the multi-year freight recession is nearing an end.

According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nearly 3,000 trucking jobs were added to the economy in November. This marked the fifth monthly gain in 2024 and the third increase in the past four months.

David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, told Land Line that higher-paying spot freight likely increased after two hurricanes and East and Gulf Coast strikes caused significant disruptions in October. On top of that, President-elect Donald Trump’s successful bid for a second term has left many in the trucking industry optimistic about future economic and freight conditions.

Carriers were already heading into this year’s peak season with a positive outlook. Spencer said more normal seasonal activity was present this year. He noted that some of the increase in demand could stem from atypical imports ahead of potential tariffs and the threat of another port strike, with the union contract extension ending on Jan. 15, 2025.

Overall, all signs are pointing to a healthier freight market.

“The data strongly supports that we are past the bottom in the freight market, and I believe carriers are looking at this as a signal to begin adding headcount ahead of what appears to be a better market for trucking in 2025,” Spencer said. “At the very least, we are consistently seeing shippers back off from pushing for another round of discounts on contract rates going into next year, providing another boost of confidence to truckload carriers. While I agree that there are green shoots in the market, a larger sustained recovery still seems a ways away given the capacity trends in the market today, and I still expect rates to ebb and flow with a relatively typical seasonal pattern through the first half of 2025, pending an unforeseen market catalyst.”

Revised numbers revealed a slightly weaker trucking job situation than initially reported, with a decrease of 800 jobs in October (compared to the previously reported decrease of 100) and an increase of 200 jobs in September (compared to the previously reported decrease of 100).

Trucking jobs are down by 1,400 from a year ago. Compared to the July 2022 peak, the trucking industry has eliminated nearly 40,000 jobs.

Accounting for all transportation sector jobs, employment rose by more than 3,000 jobs.

The transportation sector’s net increase was largely the result of increases in support activities for transportation (up 3,000), trucking and transit/ground passenger transit (up 1,800). Decreases were seen with couriers/messengers (down 2,200), warehousing/storage (down 1,400) and scenic/sightseeing transport (down 900). For all other subsectors, the employment situation was mostly unchanged.

Transportation jobs were up by more than 88,000 from a year prior but down by 28,000 compared to the peak in July 2022.

Month to month, wages were down. Average weekly earnings of all employees in the transportation and warehousing sector dropped by nearly $7 to $1,162.13. Compared to November 2023, hourly earnings increased to $30.99 from $30.01. Accounting for only production and nonsupervisory employees, average weekly earnings decreased from $1,099.13 in October to $1,097.37. However, hourly earnings increased by about $1 from November 2023 to $29.42.

Across all industries, employment increased by 227,000 jobs, which was close to what many economists projected, according to financial data company FactSet. As with trucking jobs, the large increase in overall employment was likely the result of the employers recovering from October’s hurricanes and port strikes.

The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 to 4.2%. Compared to the previous year, the unemployment rate for transportation and material-moving occupations decreased from 6% to 5.7. LL