Final employment report of 2024 indicates stabilization in the trucking industry
Thousands of trucking jobs were lost in 2024, but employment stabilized in the last quarter of the year, perhaps signaling the end of an overcapacity problem that plagued the industry for more than two years.
According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 800 trucking jobs were eliminated from the economy in December. Although this marked the sixth and final decrease of 2024, there were only two months of job losses in the trucking industry in the last five months of the year.
A tsunami of new truck drivers entered the market to take advantage of high rates in the wake of the pandemic. As market conditions slowly returned to pre-pandemic conditions, the record-high number of drivers remained. Consequently, overcapacity put downward pressure on rates.
After trucking jobs peaked in July 2022, the industry has been purging itself of excess drivers. There are 42,000 fewer truckers now than there were at that peak, with about 6,000 lost last year and 35,000 in 2023. However, only 500 truck driving jobs have disappeared since August 2024.
David Spencer, vice president of market intelligence at Arrive Logistics, pointed out that stability in trucking jobs aligns with the stability that has been seen with rates over the past year. Spencer called this “a good sign for trucking companies” and said he expects potential job growth in 2025 if the freight environment continues to improve.
“If rates increase meaningfully as the year progresses, (carriers’) focus could shift back to growth mode, leading to further job increases,” Spencer told Land Line. “That will take some time to play out, and meaningful job growth may not be realized until mid-year or later, but I believe the worst of the job losses are behind us in the current market cycle.”
Revised numbers reveal far fewer trucking jobs than initially reported, with an increase of 1,700 jobs in November 2024 (compared to the previously reported increase of 2,900) and a decrease of 1,600 jobs in October 2024 (compared to the previously reported decrease of 800).
Accounting for all transportation sector jobs, employment rose by nearly 10,000 jobs.
The transportation sector’s net increase was driven by increases in air transport (up 2,500) couriers/messengers (up 2,400), warehousing/storage (up 2,100) and support activities in transportation (up 1,800). Jobs in other subsectors were mostly stable.
Transportation jobs were up by more than 100,000 from a year prior but down by 25,000 compared to the peak in July 2022.
Month to month, wages were up. Average weekly earnings of all employees in the transportation and warehousing sector saw a nearly $14 boost to $1,180.38. Compared to December 2023, hourly earnings increased to $30.90 from $30.24. Accounting for only production and nonsupervisory employees, average weekly earnings increased from $1,099.19 in November to $1,110.56. Hourly earnings rose by about 77 cents from December 2023 to $29.38.
Across all industries, the nation gained 256,000 jobs, which blew past many economists’ projections of 153,000 jobs, according to financial data company FactSet. However, the Dow Jones fell by 600 points upon the release of the employment report, as a stronger-than-expected economy could delay any further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
The unemployment rate dipped by 0.1 to 4.1%. Compared to the previous year, the unemployment rate for the transportation sector was unchanged at 4.3%. That was well above the pre-pandemic December 2019 level of 2.8% but far below the 15.7% high in May and July 2020. LL