Energy Information Administration points to trade policy, production in latest outlook
The Energy Information Administration is forecasting lower crude oil prices through 2026.
In its May short-term energy outlook, EIA said it expects recent developments in global trade policy and oil production to contribute to lower global demand for petroleum products and contribute to lower oil prices than previously forecast.
A Brent crude oil average price per barrel of $66 is expected for 2025, before falling to $59 per barrel in 2026. In 2024, Brent crude oil averaged $81 per barrel.
“As will all EIA forecasts, its forecast for crude oil prices is highly uncertain, specifically related to possible changes in U.S. and global crude oil production and petroleum demand trends,” EIA said.
EIA also noted that its May energy outlook was completed prior to the monthly OPEC+ meeting.
We have a number of key highlights from the May #STEO on our press page: https://t.co/1U27mQJlXo https://t.co/a99TkN6Xn6
— EIA (@EIAgov) May 6, 2025
Natural gas prices are expected to increase from the historically low levels seen in 2024. In the third quarter of 2025, natural gas is expected to average $4.20 per million British thermal units – almost doubling last year’s average price.
U.S. electricity generation is also forecast to increase, largely through solar generation, which is expected to increase by more than 30% in 2025.
Fuel costs are forecast to decline through much of 2025, averaging $3.40 per gallon of diesel nationally in the third quarter. By the end of the year, that average is expected to be $3.44 per gallon before reaching nearly $3.60 per gallon by the end of 2026.
Diesel prices are updated daily on this Land Line resources page.
| Overview | ||||
| 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | |
| Note: Values in this table are rounded and may not match values in other tables in this report. | ||||
| Brent crude oil (dollars per barrel) |
82 | 81 | 66 | 59 |
| U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) |
12.9 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 13.5 |
| Natural gas spot price (dollars per million BTU) |
2.50 | 2.20 | 4.10 | 4.80 |
| U.S. LNG exports (billion cubic feet per day) |
12 | 12 | 15 | 16 |
EIA’s macroeconomic outlook is based upon the S&P Global model that reflects tariffs announced on April 2 but that was finalized before a 90-day tariff suspension for certain countries was implemented.
These differences in tariff rates likely have offsetting effects on the macroeconomic forecast, EIA said.
The full short-term energy outlook can be found on the EIA website. LL