EIA’s predicts higher global liquid fuel consumption, production

March 8, 2023

SJ Munoz


The short-term energy outlook, released by the Energy Information Administration on March 7, says global liquid fuel consumption and production will both increase into 2024.

A noticeable drop in natural gas consumption was also among the major takeaways, said EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis.

“A lot less natural gas was consumed in the U.S. residential and commercial sectors that we generally expect in January and February,” DeCarolis said in a news release. “The warmer weather in most of the country means homes and businesses haven’t been running their heating systems as much as they normally do during those months.”

U.S. LNG exports

EIA expects liquified natural gas exports in the U.S. to average about 12 billion cubic feet per day in 2023, a 14% increase. As more export facilities return to full service, including the Freeport LNG terminal in Texas, EIA is predicting a record 14 billion cubic feet per day by 2024.

2021 2022 2023 2024
Brent crude oil
(dollars per barrel)
70.89 100.94 82.95 77.57
Gasoline retail price
(dollars per gallon)
3.02 3.97 3.36 3.11
U.S. crude oil production
(million barrels per day)
11.25 11.88 12.44 12.63
Natural gas spot price
(dollars per million BTU)
3.91 6.42 3.02 3.89
U.S. LNG exports
(billion cubic feet per day)
9.76 10.59 12.07 12.73

Sources of uncertainty

EIA says Russia and China remain uncertain within the forecast.

Despite its announcement that it would cut oil production by 500,000 barrels per day, EIA said Russia has found alternate markets for petroleum exports despite sanctions. EIA still expects a drop of nearly 11 million barrels per day if crude oil production in Russia for 2023.

With the end of COVID-19 related lockdowns in China, EIA is forecasting liquid fuels consumption to increase by 700,000 barrels per day compared to last year.

The full short-term energy outlook is available on the EIA website. LL

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