EIA forecasts increased global inventories

December 8, 2022

SJ Munoz

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The Energy Information Administration’s December short-term energy outlook says global oil inventories will be higher by the end of 2023 than previously forecasted.

This expectation is based on an increase of 700,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2023, which will result in Brent Crude oil prices averaging $92 per barrel in 2023, also down (by $3) from what EIA previously forecasted.

EIA expects a slight increase in crude oil production in Venezuela in the second half of 2023, following the United States’ ruling that Chevron can resume oil production there.

“Our oil production forecast has a lot of uncertainty for Venezuela, but we expect that production there will increase somewhat next year,” Joe DeCarolis, EIA administrator, said in the report.

In addition, U.S. refinery utilization is forecasted to remain near its five-year average through 2023. As a result, EIA is expecting U.S. diesel refining margins to fall by 19% compared to 2022.

Notable Forecast Changes 2022 2023
Brent crude oil spot average (current) (dollars per barrel) $101 $92
Previous forecast $102 $95
Percentage change -0.6% -3.1%
Global oil inventory change (current) (million barrels per day) 0.2 0.2
Previous forecast 0.1 -0.3
Change 0.1 0.5
U.S. distillate fuel inventories (current) (million barrels) 122.5 123.9
Previous forecast 116.8 115.6
Percentage change 4.9% 7.2%
Diesel fuel prices (current) (dollars per gallon) $5.05 $4.48
Previous forecast $5.09 $4.65
Percentage change -0.8% -3.8%

The current STEO forecast was released on Dec. 6.
The previous STEO forecast was released on Nov. 8.


The European Union’s ban on seaborne imports of petroleum products from Russia creates supply and price uncertainty for distillate markets in early 2023, says EIA.

Even still, EIA expects that high refinery utilization will allow U.S. retail diesel prices to continue to decrease in December 2022 and into 2023. EIA forecasts diesel to average $4.50 per gallon through the first half of 2023.

Economic conditions

EIA’s December outlook includes a contraction in U.S. economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2022 as well as the first quarter of 2023. Macroeconomic conditions could significantly affect energy markets in the forecast period, said EIA.

Using the S&P Global macroeconomic model, EIA assumes the U.S. GDP will remain flat in 2023.

The full EIA short-term energy outlook is available here. LL