EIA forecasts bulk of electric generation to come from renewable sources

May 8, 2024

SJ Munoz

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The Energy Information Administration has forecasted electricity growth in the U.S., an increase in Canadian liquid fuel production and a decline in global oil prices in 2025.

EIA’s May short-term energy outlook also forecasts steady fuel prices through the third quarter of 2024.

In its electricity forecast, EIA said it expects U.S. electric generation to grow by 3% in 2024 and 1% in 2025. Renewable energy sources will supply most of that growth, EIA said.

“In 2025, we expect generation from solar to exceed the contribution from hydroelectricity for the first year in history,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said.

Liquid fuels

OPEC+ crude oil production cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks will result in a Brent crude oil spot price around $90 per barrel for the rest of 2024, according to EIA. In 2025, EIA expects that price to decrease to $85 per barrel due to an increase of global oil production.

The national average price per gallon of diesel dropped from $3.97 in the first quarter of 2024 to $3.93 in the second quarter. EIA expects that price to hold steady through the third quarter before increasing to more than $4 per gallon ($4.13) by the end of 2024.

EIA expects the startup of the Trans Mountain Pipeline will alleviate distribution bottlenecks and support increased production of liquid fuels in Canada. In 2025, EIA is forecasting 6.3 million barrels per day, an increase of 500,000 barrels per day from the current output.

 

Overview
2022 2023 2024 2025
Brent crude oil
(dollars per barrel)
101 82 88 85
U.S. crude oil production
(million barrels per day)
11.9 12.9 13.2 13.7
U.S. LNG exports
(billion cubic feet per day)
11 12 12 14

Forecast change

As part of its April forecast, EIA predicted an increase in U.S. coal exports but has since updated that expectation to show it now anticipates no change to coal exports from 2023. That April forecast was also influenced by the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, as Baltimore is the second-largest hub for coal exports in the U.S. LL