EIA forecasts bulk of electric generation to come from renewable sources
The Energy Information Administration has forecasted electricity growth in the U.S., an increase in Canadian liquid fuel production and a decline in global oil prices in 2025.
EIA’s May short-term energy outlook also forecasts steady fuel prices through the third quarter of 2024.
In its electricity forecast, EIA said it expects U.S. electric generation to grow by 3% in 2024 and 1% in 2025. Renewable energy sources will supply most of that growth, EIA said.
“In 2025, we expect generation from solar to exceed the contribution from hydroelectricity for the first year in history,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said.
We expect that in 2024:
▶️ #Solar will provide 41% more electricity than in 2023
▶️ #Wind generation will grow by 5%
▶️ #Hydropower will grow by 6%https://t.co/omAfuxyJUU #STEO— EIA (@EIAgov) May 7, 2024
Liquid fuels
OPEC+ crude oil production cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks will result in a Brent crude oil spot price around $90 per barrel for the rest of 2024, according to EIA. In 2025, EIA expects that price to decrease to $85 per barrel due to an increase of global oil production.
The national average price per gallon of diesel dropped from $3.97 in the first quarter of 2024 to $3.93 in the second quarter. EIA expects that price to hold steady through the third quarter before increasing to more than $4 per gallon ($4.13) by the end of 2024.
EIA expects the startup of the Trans Mountain Pipeline will alleviate distribution bottlenecks and support increased production of liquid fuels in Canada. In 2025, EIA is forecasting 6.3 million barrels per day, an increase of 500,000 barrels per day from the current output.
Overview | ||||
2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
Brent crude oil (dollars per barrel) |
101 | 82 | 88 | 85 |
U.S. crude oil production (million barrels per day) |
11.9 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 13.7 |
U.S. LNG exports (billion cubic feet per day) |
11 | 12 | 12 | 14 |
Forecast change
As part of its April forecast, EIA predicted an increase in U.S. coal exports but has since updated that expectation to show it now anticipates no change to coal exports from 2023. That April forecast was also influenced by the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge, as Baltimore is the second-largest hub for coal exports in the U.S. LL