EIA expects record global consumption by 2024

January 11, 2023

SJ Munoz

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In its latest short-term energy outlook report, the first to include 2024, the Energy Information Administration said it expects the global consumption of liquid fuels to set new record highs next year.

EIA expects that consumption to increase from an average of 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022 to 102.2 million barrels per day in 2024, said the outlook report. Global production also is forecast to increase from 100 million barrels per day to 102.8 million barrels per day over this two-year stretch.

“Our forecast for global consumption of petroleum depends on uncertain economic conditions – especially in China,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said in the report. “How China’s economy changes following its reopening from pandemic lockdowns could have a significant impact on global consumption of petroleum products.”

Additionally, EIA forecasts lowering crude oil prices as global inventories built through 2023 and 2024, according to the January energy outlook. Brent crude oil will average $83 per barrel in 2023, an 18% decline from 2022. In 2024, that average will fall to $78 per barrel.

Based on the EIA forecast, diesel prices are expected to fall by 20% in 2023 and 38% in 2024. The retail average per gallon of diesel will be $4.20 in 2023, and $3.70 by 2024, according to EIA’s outlook.

“Lower crude oil prices are one reason we expect lower prices, but we also expect that reduced refinery margins will contribute to prices coming down from 2021 highs,” DeCarolis said.

Notable Forecast Changes 2023 2024
Brent spot average (current) (dollars per barrel) $83 $78
Previous forecast $92
Percentage change minus 10%
U.S. distillate fuel inventories (current) (million barrels) 127.0 125.2
Previous forecast 123.9
Percentage change 2.5%
Diesel fuel prices (current) (dollars per gallon) $4.22 $3.69
Previous forecast $4.48
Percentage change minus 5.7%
The current STEO forecast was released Jan. 10.
The previous STEO forecast was released Dec. 6.

EIA also forecasted a decrease in natural gas prices and production as well as an increase in renewable energy sources in the outlook.

Read the full report here. LL