EIA expects a dip in some winter costs
At least one expense could be lower this winter season, according to the Energy Information Administration’s short-term energy outlook released on Oct. 11.
Homes that use natural gas for heat as well as those located in the western United States will spend less this winter than last, EIA’s report says.
“Natural gas prices this year have been consistently lower than in 2022,” EIA Administrator Joe DeCarolis said in a news release. “Even if this winter is colder than forecast, we still expect households heated by natural gas to pay less for heat this winter.”
According to the EIA, the U.S. typically consumes more heating fuels than it produces. However, current inventories for most heating fuels are above the five-year average thanks to a mild end to last winter.
So, what about fuel costs?
EIA is forecasting global petroleum inventories to decrease by 280,000 barrels per day in the second half of 2023. OPEC+ production targets as well as Saudi Arabia’s voluntary production cut factor heavily into this expectation.
“We expect crude oil prices to rise in response to lower global inventories,” DeCarolis said. “Although, significant uncertainty persists around global demand for oil products.”
| Notable Forecast Changes | 2023 | 2024 |
| Brent crude oil spot price (current forecast) (dollars per barrel) | $84.09 | $94.91 |
| Previous forecast | $84.46 | $88.22 |
| Percentage change | -0.4% | 7.6% |
| U.S. crude oil inventories (current forecast) (million barrels) | 419.9 | 427.7 |
| Previous forecast | 421.4 | 439.5 |
| Percentage change | -0.3% | -2.7% |
The current STEO forecast was released Oct. 11.
The previous STEO forecast was released Sept. 12.
The national average diesel price will be $4.57 per gallon by the end of 2023, according to the EIA October outlook.
By the first quarter of 2024, EIA is forecasting an average price of $4.42, and by mid-2024, it will drop to $4.25.
EIA’s full outlook is available on its website. LL
Read more Land Line news.
Related News
