Despite unknowns, EIA expects oil market to steady

September 8, 2022

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Production capacity, international conflicts and hurricane season all factor into the Energy Information Administration’s forecast for the oil market through the end of 2022.

EIA released its latest short-term energy outlook on Sept. 7.

In the outlook, EIA said it expects that oil prices will remain somewhat the same for the rest of the year, although with continued price volatility.

“Any number of factors could affect oil prices in the fourth quarter, including changes in OPEC production, conflict in Libya, or potential U.S. production and transportation disruptions due to late-season hurricanes,” Joe DeCarolis, EIA administrator, said in an EIA news release.

Market prices

EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil spot price to average $98 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2022 and $97 per barrel in 2023.

“The possibility of petroleum supply disruptions and slower-than-expected crude oil production growth continues to create the potential for higher oil prices, while the possibility of slower-than-forecast economic growth creates the potential for lower prices,” the EIA forecast read.

According to the September outlook, EIA expect crude oil production to average 11.8 million barrels per day in 2022, and jump to 12.6 million barrels per day for 2023. If so, that would break the 2019 record of 12.3 million barrels per day.

Global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuel increased to 99.4 million barrels per day in August 2022, said the outlook. Consumption is expected to continue to increase by an average of 2.1 million barrels per day in 2022, and an average of 2 million barrels per day in 2023, according to EIA’s forecast.

Retail diesel prices are forecasted by EIA to average $4.90 per gallon in the fourth quarter, and $4.28 per gallon in 2023.

You can view the full EIA short-term energy outlook here. LL