Cross-border freight surged in January as industries prepare for North American trade war

Cross-border freight kicked off 2025 on a high note, continuing a trend of strong growth at the southern border, but the latest North American freight numbers cut off before President Donald Trump’s more recent threats of tariffs.

According to the latest numbers from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, truck freight valued at nearly $88 billion was hauled across the borders in January. That was a fairly large increase of 10% compared to January 2024 and an even larger jump of 13% from the previous month.

January’s year-to-year increase continued sustained growth that began nearly four years earlier. Trucking freight across North America had been trending upward since November 2020. Only four decreases had occurred between then and September 2024, three of which happened within the seven-month period between December 2023 and June 2024. In the last two years, trucking cross-border freight has experienced a double-digit year-to-year increase only two other times: an 11.5% increase in April 2024 and a 13% increase in January 2023.

Cross-border freight hauled by trucks across the U.S. northern border rose by 7% compared to January 2024. At the southern border, trucking freight went up by 13%.

The top three truck commodities at the northern border were computers/parts ($5.6 billion, down 3%), vehicles ($4.6 billion, down 5.5%) and pearls/stones/metals/imitation jewelry ($2.5 billion, up 142%). Pearls/stones/metals/imitation jewelry were the ninth most valuable commodity last October before a 65% increase in November and a 146% increase in December shot the commodity up to its current third-place ranking.

At the Mexican border, top commodities included computers/parts ($13 billion, up 25%), electrical machinery ($11.4 billion, up 10%) and vehicles ($6.7 billion, up 6%). Computer-related truck freight at the southern border dominated North American freight throughout most of 2024, with year-to-year increases ranging from 20% to 67% every month since last April.

Top Canadian commodities for trucking by weight included wood (up 12%), iron/steel (up 3%) and paper (up 7%). In Mexico, the top three commodities were edible vegetables/roots (up 7%), vehicles (down 12%) and edible fruits/nuts (up 10%).

January’s surge in cross-border freight may be linked to the looming threat of tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods. President Donald Trump indicated he would impose tariffs shortly after beginning his second term on Jan. 20. He signed executive orders to impose those tariffs on Feb. 1 before they were paused.

According to Avery Vise, vice president of trucking at Freight Transportation Research Associates (FTR), the 12.5% month-to-month increase in seasonally adjusted goods imports in January was the largest one-month increase on record. Vise attributed the increase to Trump’s tariff threats.

Trump resurrected the tariffs on March 3 before walking them back on a wide range of goods three days later, which will go back into effect on April 2. On March 12, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum products, and on Wednesday, March 26, the White House issued tariffs on all vehicles and vehicle parts set to go into effect on April 3.

The Canadian Trucking Alliance has said U.S. tariffs will “devastate” the country’s trucking industry. In February, the Owner-Operator Independent Drivers Association said tariffs could delay recovery from a multi-year freight recession.

“Tariffs on America’s trade partners have the potential to inhibit the recovery from a freight recession that has been acutely felt by America’s small-business truckers, but it is too early to make predictions on specific downstream economic effects,” the Association said. “OOIDA’s trade experts will continue to monitor the effects of these policies as trade negotiations develop and will keep our association members informed.”

Accounting for all modes of transportation, the total value of cross-border freight reached more than $134 billion in January. That was a relatively large increase of 8% compared to the previous year and up 6% compared to December. Canadian freight was up 9% compared to the previous year, whereas Mexican freight rose by 8%.

By weight, freight crossing the borders decreased by 3% compared to January 2024 and by 2% compared to the previous month.

In January, cross-border freight was up for all modes except rail (down 3%) and vessel (down 18%). Airfreight experienced the largest increase (48%), followed by trucks and pipeline (7%). LL