Class 8 new truck orders dip, but analysts discount fears

February 3, 2023

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While orders for Class 8, heavy-duty trucks fell off in January – and for the fourth month in a row – two analytic companies say this does not reflect fears of a recession.

Preliminary net orders for Class 8 trucks reached a record high in September, reports trucking industry analytic firm FTR. Orders fell to 21,600 units in January, FTR reports. That is down 25% month to month but up 2% year to year.

Class 8 orders came in at 303,000 units for the previous 12 months.

It is not surprising that orders have fallen off, considering that backlog orders are solidifying production slots, Eric Starks, chairman of the FTR board, said in a statement.

“Orders remain above replacement demand levels but are below recent production activity. As such, backlogs likely moved slightly lower in January,” Starks said.

It is important to put the order number into perspective, he said.

“In the first half of 2022, orders averaged just shy of 18,000 units per month. This suggests that recent activity is healthy, and January itself is up 2% year over year,” Starks said in the statement. “This type of activity by fleets indicates that they are not overly concerned about an economic recession and continue to lock in build slots for the second half of 2023.”

A chart showing orders for the year ending in December can be found here.

Bloomington, Ind.-based FTR has been forecasting demand for commercial vehicles and railcars for more than 20 years. The company also offers freight market analysis.

Similar outlook from ACT

ACT Research also reports a January dip in new Class 8 truck sales.

“Given how robust Class 8 orders were into year end, the relative pause in January is not surprising,” Eric Crawford, ACT’s vice president and senior analyst, said in a statement.

ACT reports that over the final four months of 2022 nearly 159,000 net Class 8 truck orders were placed, which is 92% higher year over year and only 8% below those placed over the same period in 2020.

January’s orders represent the first year-to-year decline in five months (August), Crawford said in the ACT statement.

Medium-duty truck orders were comparatively healthy, ACT reports. Orders for Class-5-7 trucks rose 5% year to year to 17,800 units. January orders were 2% higher month to month.

Columbus, Ind.-based ACT Research was founded in 1986. The company reports that it provides analytic services to all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers. LL